Verdict
No. While jobs will decline in coal-fired power generation as plants reach end-of-life, new jobs from an expanding renewable sector will drive a major expansion of the energy sector workforce.
Analysis
Around nine thousand people work in coal-fired power generation across the National Electricity Market, including roles involved in extraction.1 This workforce supports a generating fleet of around 21 gigawatts (GW) of capacity.2 This fleet is rapidly approaching end-of-life, with 90% of coal-fired power stations scheduled to retire by 2035.3
The cheapest replacement for retiring coal-fired power generation is clean energy backed by batteries, pumped hydro and small amounts of gas. Replacing the retiring coal fleet requires a significant expansion of clean energy capacity, due in part to the lower capacity factor of variable renewable energy. This will require around 62 GW of large-scale generation, 18 GW of pumped hydro and large-scale batteries, and 40 GW of rooftop solar and home batteries nationwide.4
To manufacture, build, operate and maintain these assets, the clean energy workforce needs to more than double before the end of the decade. The workforce needs to add an additional 40,000 workers on an operating base of 25,000 workers today to a total of 65,000 workers by 2029.5 By mid-century, the workforce is projected to comprise 56,000 workers, or more than double the current workforce. The energy transition will therefore produce net job growth.
However, net job growth is scant comfort to workers exposed to job losses due to the retirement of coal-fired generating assets. The Net Zero Economy Authority is the Commonwealth entity tasked with supporting exposed workers with career planning, access to training and financial advice.6 The Authority is developing Regional Workforce Transition Plans that will deliver a place-based response that will enable affected regions to manage the impact of closures while maximising the benefits of the transition.7
References
1 – Rutovitz, J., Gerrard, E., Lara, H., and Briggs, C. (2024). The Australian Electricity Workforce for the 2024 Integrated System Plan: Projections to 2050. Prepared for RACE for 2030. URL: https://utsd8.prod.acquia-sites.com/sites/default/files/2024-09/NEM%202024%20Workforce_FINAL.pdf
2 – Australian Energy Market Operator. (2024). 2024 Integrated System Plan for the National Electricity Market. URL: https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2024/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp.pdf?la=en
3 – Ibid.
4 – Ibid.
5 – Rutovitz et al., op. cit.
6 – Net Zero Economy Authority. (2024). Power station closure plans. URL: https://www.netzero.gov.au/power-station-closure-plans [1] Net Zero Economy Authority. (2024). Community transition plans. URL: https://www.netzero.gov.au/community-transition-plans
7 – Net Zero Economy Authority. (2024). Community transition plans. URL: https://www.netzero.gov.au/community-transition-plans
