Verdict
No. The figure of 28,000km is misleading when applied to 2030 targets. It refers to an extreme, long-term scenario, not the current infrastructure needs.
Analysis
As Australia transitions away from coal-fired power and toward a decarbonised energy system, a major point of contention is the extent of infrastructure required particularly high-voltage transmission lines. One number that often gets thrown around is 28,000 kilometres of new transmission lines, but is that what’s really needed to reach 82% renewables by 2030?
What are transmission lines?
The transmission network moves high-voltage electricity from major generators, such as coal, gas, wind, and solar, to substations. It’s the largest and most visible part of the grid, made up of tall steel towers and poles carrying bulk power over long distances. There is currently around 58,000km of transmission lines around Australia1.
Transmission lines are different from distribution lines, which we typically see running through our cities and towns. Distribution lines move electricity from the substations to homes and businesses. These are usually found on poles or underground, and they operate at much lower voltages to transmission lines. There are currently over 750,000km of distribution lines in Australia2.
Western Power has this useful infographic that explains how transmission lines, distribution lines, and other energy infrastructure works together:
Source: Western Power https://www.westernpower.com.au/news/what-is-transmission-and-why-it-matters/
Why do we need more?
Traditionally, transmission linked a small number of big coal power stations to the grid. However, coal plants are retiring, and renewables like solar and wind are coming online. Unlike coal plants clustered near existing infrastructure, renewable power plants like solar farms in inland NSW or wind farms in coastal Victoria often lack nearby high-voltage connections. This means the transmission network now needs to connect more sites over greater distances, requiring a major rethink of its structure.
The transmission buildout needs to be a well-planned and targeted response to evolving grid architecture – one that prioritises efficiency, reliability, and cost control. Significant planning is required to ensure it aligns with the Australian community’s changing infrastructure and energy demands.
Exactly how much more transmission we need depends on which is our most likely energy scenario going forward. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is the authoritative source for national energy forecasting. The 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP) outlines three future energy scenarios3:
- Step Change: assumes Australia achieves its emission reduction commitments in a growing economy requiring more energy. It expects accelerated coal plant retirement and high uptake of renewables, driven by government policy, and industry and consumer adoption of solar, batteries and electrification. AEMO believes that this is the most likely scenario.
- Progressive Change: reflects a slower energy transition due to economic and international uncertainties. Coal retirements will be more gradual, and renewable energy adoption is slower than in the ‘Step Change’ scenario.
- Green Energy Exports: is the most ambitious scenario as it envisions strong industrial decarbonisation and Australia becoming a major green energy exporter. It would require significant investment in energy infrastructure development. AEMO suggests that this is the least likely scenario of the three.
The most likely scenario aligns with achieving the federal government’s 2030 emissions reduction target of 43% and forecasts 82% renewable energy in the grid by 2030. According to this plan, 4,581 kilometres of new transmission lines are needed by 2030 – not 28,000km. This is a measured, staged expansion focused on connecting Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) to demand centres and ensuring the grid remains secure and stable as coal exits3.
The ISP estimates that close to 10,000 km of additional transmission will be required by 2050 under both the Step Change and Progressive Change scenarios. That includes the 4,581 km needed this decade – the rest comes later as demand grows and more renewables are added to the network.
The much larger figure of 28,000km of new lines appears in speculative discussions about Australia’s potential to become a global “green energy superpower” in the Green Energy Exports scenario. It is often used by clean energy critics to exaggerate the scale or cost of the energy transition. AEMO assigns just a 15% probability to this scenario and explicitly states that it is not required to meet 2030 climate targets3.
How are we tracking in building new transmission lines?
Since 2020 and as of May 2025, 490 km of new transmission lines have been built, with another 2,090 km in the pipeline3. However, progress is slow, and it is not because of technical limitations like regulatory hurdles, environmental approvals, and community opposition4.
To combat this, the federal government’s Rewiring the Nation initiative is a major investment to accelerate transmission builds to meet Australia’s climate targets. State and federal governments are also pursuing renewable energy zones to focus on building large-scale renewable energy generation in selected areas because of the combination of optimal conditions for renewables, skilled workforces, and existing and planned transmission. This approach is designed to reduce transmission, connection and operation costs5, 6.
However, cost blowouts and delivery delays persist, driven by global competition for materials and skills, uncertain policy settings, and complex regulatory frameworks. Community resistance is also a key issue. In some areas, locals are pushing back against proposed transmission projects over concerns about land use, visual impact, and fairness. While energy infrastructure is a familiar part of life in many regions, for some rural communities, it’s entirely new, and unfamiliar infrastructure often breeds distrust. That’s why early, genuine engagement is critical to build ‘social licence’ for this important energy infrastructure to support Australia’s energy transition.
Conclusion
Australia does not need 28,000 kilometres of new transmission lines to reach 82% renewable energy by 2030. The widely accepted figure is, in fact, 4,581km.
The 28,000km figure is a long-term, low-probability scenario that may never eventuate. While transmission investment is critical, overstating the requirement harms public understanding and undermines support for the clean energy transition.
References
1 – Australian Energy Regulator (2021) State of the Energy Market 2021, Chapter 3 URL: https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20energy%20market%202021%20-%20Chapter%203%20-%20Electricity%20Networks.pdf
2 – Digital Atlas of Australia (2025) Transmission lines. URL: https://digital.atlas.gov.au/maps/electricity-transmission-lines
3 – Australian Energy Market Operator (2024) Integrated System Plan 2024. URL: https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2024/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp.pdf?la=en
4 – Australian Financial Review (8 Nov 2024) Energy bill fears grow as transmission costs blow out URL: https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/energy-bill-fears-grow-as-transmission-costs-blow-out-20240916-p5katm
5 – Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water (2025) Modernising our electricity grid. URL: https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/renewable/rewiring-the-nation#:~:text=The%202024%20ISP%20forecasts%20that,needed%20to%20meet%202030%20targets
6- Australian Energy Market Operator (2024) Integrated System Plan 2024. URL: https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2024/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp.pdf?la=en
